From Offsetting to Emulation: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of Russia’s Internal Balancing Strategies

In 2008, Russia began to implement its largest military reform since the creation of Red Army in 1918. Previous attempts at reforms 1992, 1997, and 2003 did not result fundamental transformations country’s military. Why was 2008 successful while others were not? This article uses comparative-historical method identify causal mechanisms between Russia’s level external threat, state capacity, internal balancing strategies adopted 1991. It advances Neoclassical Realism’s systemic unit-level variables by building on long-established contributions from Strategic Studies Historical Sociology instead relying other International Relations theories. concludes that success post-Cold War period depended simultaneous existence three conditions: possibility disrupting strategic stability, ability extract mobilize societal resources, presence some event proven ineffectiveness. Under scenarios which only one or two these conditions present, carried out partial reforms. The sheds light often-neglected drivers Western analysts: enduring emphasis interstate competition, mid-to-high intensity conventional warfare.